日经中文网·2026-01-04 02:39Core Viewpoint - BYD is set to become the world's largest seller of electric vehicles (EVs) in 2025, with projected sales of 2.25 million units, significantly surpassing Tesla's expected sales of 1.64 million units. However, BYD is experiencing a slowdown in growth, particularly in the domestic market, where competition is intensifying in terms of price and technology [2][4][6]. Group 1: Sales Performance - BYD's EV passenger car sales are expected to grow by 28% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 2.25 million units, while overall new car sales, including plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs), are projected to increase by 8% to 4.6 million units [4]. - Since 2021, BYD has seen rapid growth in new car sales, with 2021 sales at 740,000 units, and is expected to surpass Honda and Nissan in 2024. However, the growth rate is noticeably slowing compared to previous years [4][6]. Group 2: Market Challenges - BYD's domestic sales have begun to decline, with a notable drop in September sales, marking the first year-on-year decrease in 18 months. The company has revised its annual sales target down by 10% from 5.5 million to 4.6 million units [6][8]. - Chairman Wang Chuanfu indicated that the slowdown is partly due to a decrease in technological leadership and increasing market homogenization, which aligns with the cyclical nature of product and technology development [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - In terms of pricing, BYD's main model, the low-cost EV "Seagull," faces competition from Geely's "Star Wish" and SAIC-GM-Wuling's "Hongguang MINI," which are priced competitively [7]. - Competitors are also catching up in technology, particularly in the rapidly advancing field of driver assistance systems, with major automakers like Beijing Automotive Group and Changan Automobile receiving government approval for mass production of their EVs equipped with Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities [7]. Group 4: Financial Impact - The company's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 has decreased by 8% year-on-year to 23.3 billion yuan, marking the first profit decline in four years for the same period. Revenue and profit both declined in the third quarter, exacerbated by rising R&D costs outpacing revenue growth [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The domestic market environment is expected to become more challenging in 2026, with the full exemption of vehicle purchase tax for EVs set to be halved. The proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market is projected to increase to 50%, but the pace of adoption is expected to slow [9]. - Despite these challenges, Wang Chuanfu remains optimistic about future technology releases and the performance of subsidiaries like "Equation Leopard," which focuses on off-road vehicles. The ability to maintain domestic market leadership while expanding into overseas markets will be crucial for stable growth in 2026 [9].