委内瑞拉，一个世纪的资源争夺与宿命

Group 1 - Venezuela possesses approximately 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, accounting for 17% of the global total, making it the largest in the world, surpassing Saudi Arabia and far exceeding the United States [3]. - The oil industry has historically been a double-edged sword for Venezuela, leading to significant wealth but also to social inequality and external intervention [1][6]. - The "Bolivarian Revolution" initiated by Hugo Chávez in 1999 aimed to reclaim oil sovereignty through nationalization, mandating that the state-owned PDVSA hold at least 51% in joint ventures [6][8]. Group 2 - U.S. military intervention in Venezuela is a culmination of over a century of resource competition, with oil interests at the core of U.S.-Venezuela relations [1][11]. - Following Chávez's death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro continued the nationalization policies, but U.S. sanctions intensified, leading to a significant decline in Venezuela's oil production capacity from 3.5 million barrels per day to around 1 million barrels per day [15][12]. - The U.S. has a strategic dependency on Venezuelan heavy crude oil, which is essential for its refining industry, despite imposing sanctions [18]. Group 3 - The recent military actions by the U.S. have sparked geopolitical tensions across the Western Hemisphere, with various countries condemning the intervention and calling for diplomatic solutions [23]. - The interruption of Venezuelan oil exports could lead to increased volatility in global oil prices, particularly for heavy crude, as the market adjusts to potential supply disruptions [23][24]. - Long-term, the global oil market is currently characterized by oversupply, which may limit the upward pressure on prices despite geopolitical risks [24][25].