黄金白银将迎新年“第一劫”

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly silver and gold, are expected to face significant selling pressure due to the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which could impact their recent price volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Price Performance - Last year, precious metals saw substantial price increases, with spot silver rising approximately 148% and spot gold increasing about 65%, marking the largest annual gains since 1979 [2]. - The price increases of these metals outpaced the stock price growth of major tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple [2]. Group 2: Upcoming Rebalancing Impact - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which serves as a benchmark for a basket of commodities, will undergo a weight rebalancing from January 8 to January 14, affecting approximately $109 billion in funds tracking the index [4]. - Morgan Stanley analysts have warned that this rebalancing could lead to a sell-off of about $3.8 billion in silver and $4.7 billion in gold [5]. - Other analysts, such as Daniel Ghali from TD Securities, predict that the sell-off could be even larger, estimating around $6 billion in gold futures to be sold during the rebalancing period [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Volatility - The current allocation of silver in the index is 9%, with a target weight of just under 4% by 2026, suggesting nearly $5 billion in silver positions may be sold between January 8 and 14 [5]. - Ghali anticipates that 13% of the total open interest in the silver market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will be sold in the next two weeks, potentially leading to significant price declines [6]. - The analysts have noted that reduced market liquidity following the New Year holiday could exacerbate price volatility during this period [6].