“转型牛”远远没有结束！国泰海通方奕：具备三大动力，2026年A股将迎新高度

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "transformation bull market" in China's capital market, driven by structural economic changes and capital market reforms, with expectations for continued growth and opportunities in emerging technologies and industries [4][9][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, China's assets led the world, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4000-point mark, closing the year up 18.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index surged 49.57% [2]. - After reaching 4000 points on October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a two-month fluctuation between 3800 and 4000 points, influenced by various factors including U.S.-China relations and domestic real estate market weakness [5]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The "transformation bull market" reflects three significant marginal changes in China's economy: a reduction in the drag from traditional industries like real estate, accelerated expansion of new technologies and industries, and the global competitiveness of manufacturing sectors [4][17]. - The article emphasizes that the capital market's ability to consolidate social confidence and capital is unprecedented, marking a historical change in China's financial landscape [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article expresses optimism for the spring market, predicting a "spring opening red" for the stock market, with expectations for policy support, liquidity, and improved fundamentals [6]. - The anticipated growth in 2026 is projected to be double-digit, with a forecast of 10.6% growth for non-financial A-shares, driven by the ongoing transformation of the economy [17][18]. Group 4: Key Drivers of the "Transformation Bull Market" - Three main drivers are identified for the "transformation bull market": the breaking of "guaranteed returns" and the decline of risk-free yields, capital market reforms enhancing investment confidence, and reduced uncertainty in economic development [13][14][16]. - The breaking of "guaranteed returns" has led to a significant drop in fixed-income product yields, prompting investors to seek higher returns in equities and diversified assets [14]. - Capital market reforms have improved the investment environment, increasing the attractiveness of the stock market and stabilizing market volatility [15].