人民币汇率破7背后

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "weak then strong" trend of the RMB against the USD in 2025, highlighting a significant appreciation towards the end of the year due to multiple factors including a weakening USD, stable Chinese economic fundamentals, and increased demand for currency settlement [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections RMB Exchange Rate Trend - In 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate showed a "weak then strong" trend, fluctuating around 7.35 until early April, before reversing to an upward trend [5][6]. - By December 25, the offshore RMB broke the 7 mark, reaching a new high since September 2024, while the onshore RMB also surpassed 7.0, marking the highest level since May 2023 [6][7]. Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a weaker USD, a resilient Chinese economy, and increased year-end currency settlement demands [6][7][9]. - The correlation between the USD index and RMB exchange rate indicates that for every 3% depreciation of the USD, the RMB appreciates by approximately 1% [7][8]. Seasonal and Market Dynamics - Seasonal factors contribute to RMB appreciation, particularly at year-end when exporters have higher settlement needs, which boosts demand for RMB [8][9]. - The article notes that the strong performance of exports and the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets also play significant roles in the recent appreciation [9][10]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the RMB will likely experience two-way fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend, influenced by the relative strength of the US and Chinese economies, changes in USD interest rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships [1][11][12]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will maintain a stable range between 6.9 and 7.3, with potential for appreciation if the USD continues to weaken [13][14].