2026宏观经济十大看点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the focus on macroeconomic policies in 2026, highlighting the need for increased fiscal support and investment to stimulate economic growth [2][3][5]. Group 2 - Fiscal deficit and government bond issuance are expected to increase, with a projected fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4% and a deficit scale of at least 4.06 trillion yuan [2]. - The new special bonds limit may rise from 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025 to nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2026 to support major project construction [2]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with a CPI target set around 2%, allowing for traditional monetary policy operations like rate cuts [3]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumption, is highlighted as a primary task for 2026, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer purchasing power [5][6]. - Government investment is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing fixed asset investment growth, with infrastructure investment set to accelerate due to new major projects [7]. - Real estate policies will focus on inventory reduction, with measures to optimize housing policies and increase support for home purchases [8][9]. - Capital market reforms will aim to deepen investment and financing reforms, enhancing support for technology innovation and improving market attractiveness [10]. - The construction of a unified national market is set to accelerate, with regulations aimed at reducing "involution" competition and improving market access [11]. - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is emphasized, with a focus on expanding AI applications across various sectors [12][13]. - State-owned enterprise reforms will continue, focusing on optimizing the layout of state-owned economies and enhancing modern enterprise systems [14]. - Policies aimed at improving income security and social welfare will be prioritized, with a focus on employment and income distribution [15].