券商中国·2026-01-04 23:34Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of economic work and investment strategies as China enters a critical period of its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - A-share company profit growth is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, influenced by the US-China trade dynamics and the upcoming US midterm elections [3][5]. - The international order's restructuring and China's industrial innovation are anticipated to support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [6][8]. - The nominal GDP growth in China is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings [21]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Focus - Key investment themes include the global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery in domestic demand [5][8][19]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI applications, machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy equipment [5][8][19]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with a focus on industries experiencing supply constraints and clear growth trends, such as AI and energy storage [11][25]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The article highlights the need for policies that support long-term market stability and the development of new industries, particularly in technology and innovation [6][17][24]. - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and stimulate domestic demand, contributing to overall market recovery [15][17]. - The capital market is anticipated to transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from both traditional and emerging growth drivers [15][19].