越南名义GDP最早有望2026年跃居东南亚第二

Group 1 - The Vietnamese government aims for a growth rate of over 10% after 2026, with nominal GDP expected to reach approximately $550 billion by 2026-2027, surpassing Thailand and becoming the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia [2][4] - Vietnam's actual GDP achieved an annual growth rate of around 8% in 2025, with public investment being the main driver of economic growth. The public investment plan for 2026 is projected to increase by about 26%, which could raise GDP growth by 1.6 percentage points [4] - Major infrastructure projects are underway, including a new airport in the southern suburbs of Ho Chi Minh City and railway construction in the northern region supported by China [4] Group 2 - Thailand, once considered the "star" of Southeast Asia, is facing political instability and friction with Cambodia, leading to a decline in economic growth momentum. The OECD predicts Thailand's actual GDP growth will be 1.5% in 2026, down 0.5 percentage points from 2025 [5] - Consumer purchasing power in Southeast Asia is shifting, with new car sales in Indonesia declining by about 10% in the first ten months of 2025, while Malaysia's sales are comparable despite its smaller population [5] - Japanese companies are reevaluating their investment strategies in Southeast Asia, with a shift from Thailand to Vietnam due to Vietnam's advantages in digitalization and IT, while Thailand has a more developed supply chain for parts and materials [7]