油价跳水翻绿，委内瑞拉超1700万桶原油滞留海上，危机或影响化工市场

Core Viewpoint - The recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has led to fluctuations in the oil market, with initial price increases followed by declines due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply issues [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Market Reactions - Following Maduro's capture, U.S. crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to a peak of $57.73 per gallon, while Brent crude reached $61.24 per gallon before both experienced declines [1]. - As of 13:40 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil fell by 0.44% to $57.07, and Brent crude decreased by 0.36% to $60.53 [1]. Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Production and Exports - Venezuela's oil exports have plummeted to nearly zero due to U.S. sanctions, with the country’s oil production being significantly affected, leading to a near saturation of domestic storage facilities [2][3]. - The total amount of Venezuelan oil stranded at sea has exceeded 17 million barrels, with daily production dropping from approximately 1.1 million barrels in November to about 500,000 barrels in December [3]. Group 3: Global Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, which is nearly one-fifth of the global total [3]. - Despite the short-term potential for price spikes due to geopolitical factors, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to global economic weakness and an oversupply of oil [4]. Group 4: Implications for the Chemical Industry - The disruption in Venezuelan oil supply, particularly of the Merey crude, is expected to lead to shortages in asphalt production, impacting downstream industries such as road construction [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions may also affect methanol supplies to China, as Venezuela's exports are crucial for the region's methanol production [5]. - Rising oil prices are likely to increase costs across the chemical supply chain, affecting the pricing of various downstream products [5].