财政赤字率4%够吗？｜请回答，2026

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, particularly in the context of insufficient domestic demand and the need for economic growth support as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins [1][6]. Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be no lower than 4%, with some scholars suggesting it could rise to between 4.5% and 5% [2][5]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a more active fiscal policy, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt, and expenditure [2][6]. - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is set at approximately 56,600 billion yuan, with expectations that the 2026 deficit will exceed this amount due to GDP growth [3][4]. Government Debt and Expenditure - The broad central fiscal expenditure for 2025 includes an additional local government special bond limit of 44,000 billion yuan and a special long-term national bond issuance of 13,000 billion yuan [3][4]. - For 2026, the government is expected to continue issuing special bonds and increase the scale of new government debt to between 15.5 trillion and 16.3 trillion yuan, which will support economic stability and domestic demand [5][6]. Economic Challenges and Responses - The article notes ongoing economic challenges, including weak domestic demand and employment issues, which necessitate a robust fiscal response [6][7]. - The central government aims to address these challenges through increased fiscal spending, particularly in major projects and public services, to stimulate economic growth [6][7]. Monetary Policy Direction - The monetary policy for 2026 will remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts of up to 0.3 percentage points to lower financing costs and stimulate investment and consumption [7][8]. - Structural monetary policies will focus on directing financial resources towards innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and small enterprises, enhancing support for key economic sectors [8].