材料汇·2026-01-05 16:02Global Petrochemical Industry Overview - The global petrochemical industry is valued at approximately $4.5-5 trillion, with basic chemical raw materials and polymers accounting for over 50% of the market share. High-value segments like fine chemicals and specialty chemicals are the main growth drivers [4] - Major petrochemical products include ethylene (21.8 million tons, ~$200 billion), polyethylene (11 million tons, ~$120 billion), and methanol (12.5 million tons, ~$32 billion) [4] International Market Dynamics - The competitiveness of major petrochemical products from Europe, Japan, and South Korea is declining due to significant shutdowns of chemical plants in Europe and reduced capacity utilization in Japan and South Korea [5][6] - South Korea's PX load factor is projected to drop from 99% in 2019 to 71% in 2024, while Japan's PX load factor is expected to decline from 84% to 61% in the same period [6] China's Petrochemical Market - China's petrochemical industry accounts for 45%-50% of the global market, leading the world, but profits have been declining since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with increased competition and reduced margins [7] - The industry is expected to generate revenues of 16.28 trillion yuan in 2024, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, but profits are projected to decline by 8.8% [8] Capacity Expansion and Utilization - Since 2019, China's petrochemical industry has seen a new round of expansion, with various projects leading to annual capacity growth rates exceeding 10% [10] - The average annual capacity growth for major products like ethylene and PX is significant, but overall capacity utilization rates are declining, from 80% in Q2 2021 to a projected 72% by Q2 2025 [11] Demand Trends - Domestic demand for petrochemical products is expected to maintain growth, driven by exports and import substitution, with significant increases in self-sufficiency rates for ethylene and PX [13] - Emerging sectors such as new energy and new consumption models are expected to drive demand for new materials and traditional plastics [14] Policy and Industry Trends - Policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity and promoting high-end and new materials are emerging, creating opportunities for technologically advanced companies [22] - The shift towards "reduce oil and increase chemicals" is a strategic response to enhance competitiveness and extend the industrial chain [23] Fine Chemicals and Investment Opportunities - Fine chemicals represent a significant growth area, with a market size exceeding $1 trillion, but China still relies heavily on imports for high-end products [24] - Foreign investment in China's chemical industry is increasing, with major global companies focusing on high-end, integrated production to capture growth opportunities [26][30] Future Prospects - The long-term outlook for China's chemical industry is positive, supported by domestic demand recovery and external market expansion, with a focus on integrated cost advantages and global capacity shifts [17] - The rise of the semiconductor and AI industries is creating unprecedented opportunities for high-end chemical materials, driving the transformation of the petrochemical sector [35][36]