第一财经·2026-01-06 02:26Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 weight loss drug, semaglutide, was officially launched in the U.S. on January 5, 2026, just two weeks after FDA approval, marking a significant milestone in the weight loss medication market [3][4]. Group 1: Novo Nordisk's Product Launch - The stock price of Novo Nordisk surged over 5% following the launch, while competitor Eli Lilly's stock fell by 3.6% [4]. - The monthly treatment cost for self-paying patients ranges from $149 to $299, significantly lower than the initial $1,000 monthly cost for the injectable version [4]. - The starting dose of oral semaglutide is 1.5 mg, priced at $149 per month, with a planned price increase for higher doses after April 15 [4]. - In a clinical trial involving over 300 obese but non-diabetic adults, patients on the highest dose of oral semaglutide lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight over 64 weeks [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 weight loss drug, orforglipron, is expected to receive approval in the first quarter of 2026, with clinical data showing an average weight loss of 10.5% at the highest dose [5]. - The oral weight loss medication market is projected to capture 24% of the global weight loss therapy market by 2030, estimated at $950 billion, translating to a market size of approximately $22 billion for oral medications [5]. - Eli Lilly's orforglipron is anticipated to hold about 60% of the oral weight loss drug market, valued at approximately $13.6 billion, while Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is expected to capture around 21% of the market, worth about $4 billion [5].