美股连续三年两位数上涨，2026年是涨是跌？

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index experienced a 16% increase in 2025, marking three consecutive years of double-digit growth, with a cumulative return of 78% from 2023 to 2025. Historical data suggests a high likelihood of significant volatility (over 10% up or down) in 2026 following such performance [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Predictions - In the past century, there have been nine instances of the S&P 500 achieving three consecutive years of double-digit growth, with seven of those instances resulting in over 10% volatility in the following year [4]. - The most recent similar occurrence was from 2019 to 2021, which was followed by a 19% decline in 2022 due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in response to inflation [4]. - The absence of major events like midterm elections in 2026 shifts focus to the upcoming nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair, with current chair Jerome Powell's term ending in May [4]. Group 2: Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has a 40% chance of being nominated, seen as aligned with Trump's monetary policy intentions, which may lead to expectations of significant interest rate cuts [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller, both categorized as "doves" compared to Powell [5][6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Scenarios - The core scenario anticipates a reduction of the policy interest rate to between 3.0% and 3.25%, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 [6]. - A bullish scenario suggests that a dovish new Fed chair could lower rates below 3%, potentially driving economic growth and stock market gains [8]. - Conversely, a bearish scenario posits that the Fed may need to raise rates again by the end of 2026 due to accelerating inflation and currency depreciation, despite a dovish chair [8]. Group 4: Market Projections - Under the core scenario, the S&P 500 index is projected to reach 7,750 points by the end of 2026, a 10% increase from 6,845 points at the end of 2025 [8]. - In a bullish scenario, the index could rise by 30% to 9,000 points, while in a bearish scenario, it could fall by 30% to 5,000 points [8].