10年新高！转债市场火了

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to strengthen, reaching a 10-year high, while the China Convertible Bond Index has also risen, hitting its highest point since June 2015 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index has shown a strong performance since 2025, highlighting its unique value in the equity market's volatility, characterized by "offensive and defensive" capabilities [2]. - On January 6, the China Convertible Bond Index surged by 1.35% to 505.77 points, marking a high not seen since June 2015 [4]. - The recent strong performance of convertible bonds is driven by the underlying stocks, with notable examples including the Seer Medical bond, which saw a 20% increase due to the stock's performance [5]. Group 2: Key Catalysts - The core catalyst for the current market rally is the commercialization breakthrough in the brain-computer interface industry, with significant announcements from companies like Neuralink [4]. - Domestic policy support for the brain-computer interface sector is also increasing, with initiatives aimed at expediting the approval processes for related medical devices [4]. Group 3: Structural Trends - The recent rally in convertible bonds is characterized by two main features: strong performance of underlying stocks and concentrated thematic interest in sectors like brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare [5]. - Despite some convertible bonds experiencing declines due to falling stock prices, the overall market sentiment remains positive, driven by high-growth sectors [6]. Group 4: Historical Context - The last time the China Convertible Bond Index reached a historical high was in June 2015, during a peak in the A-share bull market [8]. - Since 2019, the convertible bond market has gradually recovered, with a notable resurgence in 2025, reflecting a strong correlation with the performance of underlying stocks [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming "spring rally" in the A-share and convertible bond markets may be influenced by seasonal capital inflows and policy expectations [12]. - The performance of convertible bonds in the near term will depend on institutional investment behavior and the release of annual performance forecasts for A-shares [12].