【宏观经济】一周要闻回顾(2025年12月31日-2026年1月6日)

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium-sized enterprises at 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; and small enterprises at 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points, all below the critical point [3] - The production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities; the new orders index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, showing improved market demand [5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In December, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [6] - The construction industry index was 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points; the service industry index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [6] - The new orders index was 47.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in market demand for non-manufacturing sectors [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for December was 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [6] Group 4: Service Trade Growth - From January to November 2025, China's service trade totaled 720.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [10] - Service exports reached 319.80 billion yuan, up 13.4%, while imports were 400.44 billion yuan, up 2.5%, resulting in a service trade deficit of 80.64 billion yuan, reduced by 27.96 billion yuan year-on-year [11] Group 5: Trade in Knowledge-Intensive Services - Knowledge-intensive service trade reached 273.06 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [11] - Notably, telecommunications and information services saw growth rates of 8.3% and 4.1%, respectively [11] Group 6: Consumption and Economic Impact - In 2025, the sales of products related to the "trade-in" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [14] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with the "trade-in" policy contributing over 1 percentage point to this growth [14] - The automotive trade-in program saw over 11.5 million vehicles exchanged, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [14]