沪指再创本轮牛市新高

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in the A-share market is characterized by a prolonged and structural nature, driven by factors such as sustained liquidity, low domestic interest rates, and a focus on technological innovation, distinguishing it from previous bull markets that were primarily liquidity-driven [3][10][11]. Market Performance - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% to close at 4083 points, marking a new high in the current bull market after 13 consecutive trading days of increases [3]. - The total trading volume across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.83 trillion yuan [3]. Historical Context - Since 2008, the A-share market has experienced four bull markets, each lasting between 23.5 to 25.5 months, with the current market having run for approximately 23 months since its low point in February 2024 [6][10]. - The previous bull markets were driven by different sectors, including financials, leverage, and new energy, while the current market is led by artificial intelligence and non-ferrous metals [5][6]. Structural Characteristics - The current bull market is marked by a structural shift, with funds concentrated in sectors aligned with national strategies and global technological trends, such as AI, semiconductors, and new energy [8][10]. - The balance of margin trading as of January 5 was 2.56 trillion yuan, slightly above the level seen in June 2015, indicating that leverage has not significantly expanded [10]. Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term funds, including insurance and pension funds, are entering the market, contributing to a more institutionalized and stable market environment, which supports the "slow bull" foundation [10][11]. - The market is expected to transition from a valuation recovery phase to a profit-driven phase, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductor localization, and innovative pharmaceuticals [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the current bull market may extend beyond historical time limits, evolving into a higher quality "long bull" and "slow bull" due to supportive policies and structural economic changes [11]. - The emphasis on technology stocks is expected to continue, with potential for market differentiation as investors seek opportunities in the commercialization of AI and domestic replacements [11].