今年首次油价调整“搁浅”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent suspension of domestic refined oil price adjustments in China due to insufficient changes in international oil prices, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and market dynamics on oil supply and pricing [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment - The first adjustment window for domestic refined oil prices in 2026 was on January 6, but no changes were made as the price change per ton was less than 50 yuan compared to the previous period [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the unadjusted amount will be carried over to the next price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have heightened geopolitical tensions, which may affect oil supply and investor sentiment despite Venezuela's small share in global oil production [1][2]. - Venezuela accounts for approximately 1% of global oil production and is a significant producer of heavy sour crude, which is in high demand for refining [2]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan established in November 2025, with no increase in output planned for February and March 2026, aiming to stabilize the oil market [2][3]. - From April to December 2025, OPEC+ members increased their production targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day, which is nearly 3% of global oil demand [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global oil demand growth is insufficient, and with the expansion of U.S. shale oil production, there is a risk of oversupply, leading to potential downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - The next price adjustment window is set for January 20, with expectations of a possible increase in refined oil prices due to improved local demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [3].