一盎司银贵过一桶油，大宗商品迎来“银强油弱”新时代

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting trends in silver and oil markets, highlighting the recent surge in silver prices while oil prices remain subdued, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics and market perceptions of value in the context of energy transition [2][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of January 6, 2026, silver futures prices are around $77 per ounce, while WTI crude oil futures are at $58 per barrel, resulting in a silver-to-oil ratio of approximately 1.3, meaning one ounce of silver can purchase 1.3 barrels of oil [2]. - Over the past six months, oil prices have dropped over 32% from a high of $74 per barrel to a low of $50, while silver prices have doubled from around $40 per ounce to a peak of $80 [3]. - The last time silver was more expensive than oil was approximately 45 years ago, excluding extreme market conditions [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - In extreme market conditions, the silver-to-oil ratio reached 0.8 in 2020 during negative oil price events, while during the Hunt brothers' manipulation of the silver market from 1979 to 1980, silver prices surged from $6 to nearly $50, with oil prices ranging from $30 to $40 per barrel, resulting in a silver-to-oil ratio of about 1.25 to 1.67 [5]. Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - The current silver-to-oil ratio fluctuates between 1.2 and 1.3, with silver showing strong rebound momentum after a drop from its historical high, supported by increasing net long positions in COMEX silver futures [6]. - In contrast, oil prices have shown resilience against geopolitical events, with a significant decline of over 18% in 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2020, as the market adjusts to a supply surplus [6][9]. - Venezuela's oil production, despite its vast reserves of 303 billion barrels, is currently limited to about 1 million barrels per day, contributing to the perception of a stable oil price environment [6]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Reassessment - The contrasting performance of silver and oil reflects a re-evaluation of the value of different commodities amid the accelerating energy transition, with silver being increasingly recognized for its financial attributes and industrial applications [8]. - Silver's demand is closely tied to global economic conditions, particularly in sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, while oil's demand remains weak due to ongoing inventory builds and increased production forecasts [9]. - Despite the anticipated energy transition, uncertainties such as insufficient clean energy infrastructure investment and traditional energy subsidies may slow the transition process, impacting future silver and oil price dynamics [9].