降准降息可期！央行2026年政策定调

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined seven key priorities for 2026, focusing on monetary policy implementation, financial services for the real economy, risk prevention, and financial reform and opening-up [3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, emphasizing the promotion of high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as core considerations [5]. - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and ensure that social financing conditions remain relatively loose [5]. - Structural policies will be refined to provide targeted support to key areas, including expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - The RMB has shown a strong recovery, with the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate breaking 6.97 for the first time in two and a half years, indicating a potential for moderate appreciation in 2026 [8]. - The PBOC aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level while preventing excessive fluctuations, with a focus on managing market expectations [9]. Group 3: Financial Risk Prevention - The PBOC has prioritized the prudent resolution of financial risks in key areas, including financing platform debts and small financial institutions, and has proposed mechanisms for providing liquidity support to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios [11]. - The exploration of liquidity support mechanisms for non-bank institutions is seen as a proactive response to potential systemic risks, given the growing scale of these institutions in the financial market [12].