价格“内卷”！实探沪深写字楼市场

Core Viewpoint - The vacancy rate of office buildings in first-tier cities has become a significant concern in the commercial real estate sector, indicating challenges and pressures for transformation in the office market [1] Group 1: Vacancy Rates and Market Conditions - As of the end of Q3 2025, the vacancy rates for Grade A office buildings in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen range from approximately 19% to 30%, with a rate above 20% indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3] - In Shanghai, the vacancy rate for office buildings reached 23.5% by the end of Q3 2025, with significant price reductions observed, such as a drop from 10 yuan per square meter per day to 5 yuan [6][7] - The overall net absorption of Grade A office space in first-tier cities is projected to be about 1.175 million square meters in 2025, a significant decrease from 3.342 million square meters in 2021, highlighting a persistent supply-demand imbalance [9] Group 2: Market Challenges and Competitive Pressures - The phenomenon of "price competition" is prevalent, with tenants comparing prices and demanding lower rents, leading to a decline in rental stability, especially among small and medium enterprises [5] - In competitive areas like the Huaxin district in Shanghai, despite a strong logistics industry presence, the office market struggles due to reduced government subsidies and increasing competition from nearby districts [7] - A high-end office complex in the Jing'an Temple business district has seen its vacancy rate approach 80%, with rental prices dropping significantly due to oversupply in the area [7] Group 3: Recommendations for Addressing Vacancy Issues - Experts suggest addressing the vacancy issue by managing new supply and revitalizing existing stock, including stricter evaluations for new projects and repurposing unused buildings for essential services [9][10] - The Shenzhen government has initiated policies allowing the conversion of idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing, providing a potential solution to the oversupply of office space [10] - To stimulate demand, there is a need for industrial upgrades and enhancing the service sector, requiring comprehensive measures to attract modern service enterprises [11]