材料汇·2026-01-06 16:00Core Insights - The article discusses the rising costs associated with advanced semiconductor processes, highlighting that the transition from planar FET to FinFET and Nanosheet technologies has led to exponential increases in design and manufacturing costs, making it difficult for small and medium enterprises to invest in advanced processes [8][9]. - The industry is shifting towards higher concentration among leading foundries, while advanced packaging technologies allow smaller companies to participate in high-end chip design without relying on advanced processes [9][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of heterogeneous integration and the need for tailored architectures based on application scenarios, indicating a trend towards dynamic adjustments in advanced packaging strategies [25][56]. Cost Trends - Design costs have surged from $28 million for 65nm processes to $725 million for 2nm processes, with manufacturing investments also increasing significantly [9]. - The investment required for a 5nm factory is five times that of a 20nm factory, indicating a substantial financial barrier for smaller players in the industry [8]. Architectural Comparisons - The article compares four architectures, noting that smaller systems (like mobile chips) benefit from a "large chip + 3D stacking" approach, while larger systems (like AI servers) favor a "chiplet + 3D stacking" strategy to balance performance and cost [16][24]. - As system complexity increases, the advantages of chiplet-based designs become more pronounced, particularly in terms of cost efficiency [17][23]. Advanced Packaging Technologies - Advanced packaging is evolving to meet the demands of AI and high-performance computing, with technologies like 2.5D and 3D packaging becoming standard for high-end chips [36][72]. - The integration of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) with 2.5D packaging has become a standard, driven by the need for high memory bandwidth in AI applications [29][36]. Interconnect Technologies - The article highlights the critical role of interconnect technologies in enhancing I/O density, with projections showing a significant increase in interconnect density from 1960s levels of 2/mm² to future levels of 131072/mm² [38]. - Advanced packaging is shifting from being a secondary process to a core component of performance enhancement, with interconnect-related technologies expected to yield higher profit margins than traditional packaging [39][42]. Market Dynamics - The article notes that the demand for advanced packaging is driven by the need for high bandwidth, miniaturization, and low power consumption, particularly in edge AI applications [49][50]. - The automotive sector's transition from distributed ECUs to centralized computing is pushing for higher integration levels, which in turn drives advancements in packaging technologies [53][56]. Technology Evolution - The evolution of packaging technologies is characterized by a shift from single technology optimization to system-level engineering design, necessitating cross-domain integration capabilities [68][70]. - The article outlines a clear roadmap for the evolution of interconnect technologies, indicating that the industry is entering a phase of rapid technological iteration driven by market demands [154][165]. Cost Structure - The cost structure for 2.5D packaging is primarily driven by the interposer (Si/mold/silicon bridge) and packaging substrate, while for 3D packaging, the key cost factor is the bonding process [168][169]. - The differences in cost structures dictate the profitability models for companies, with 2.5D packaging firms needing to manage interposer and substrate costs, while 3D packaging firms focus on optimizing bonding yields and efficiency [169].