【广发金工】PMI回升至荣枯线以上，当前看多权益资产：大类资产配置分析月报（2025年12月）

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities, a bearish stance on bonds and gold, and a mixed view on industrial products [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities are favored in the current macroeconomic environment, with a positive outlook supported by favorable macro indicators [2][7]. - Bonds are viewed negatively, with macroeconomic conditions suggesting a bearish trend [2][7]. - Gold is also seen as unfavorable from a macro perspective, despite a positive technical trend [2][7]. - Industrial products are supported by macroeconomic factors, although the technical trend is currently downward [2][7]. Technical Analysis - The technical indicators show an upward trend for equities and gold, while bonds and industrial products are trending downward [12][13]. - The latest technical scores indicate that equities have a positive trend score, while bonds and industrial products have negative scores [13]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data shows that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 12.10% for 2025, with an annualized return of 10.22% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity strategies also demonstrated returns of 14.94% and 7.90%, respectively, since April 2006 [3][31]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy involves a fixed ratio for equities, bonds, commodities, and cash, with adjustments based on macro and technical signals [24][25]. - The historical performance of the asset allocation strategies indicates that the combination of macro and technical indicators has been effective in enhancing returns while managing risk [28][31].