人民币汇率能站稳“6元区间”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting the factors contributing to this trend and the potential implications for the economy and currency policy. Group 1: Yuan Appreciation - On January 5, the yuan reached a level of 6.97 against the dollar, marking the highest point in 2 years and 8 months, driven by trade surpluses and pressure to sell dollars and buy yuan [2] - The yuan surpassed the 7 yuan mark against the dollar on December 30, 2025, and further appreciated to 6.9770 on January 5, 2026 [3] - The trade surplus for China from January to November 2025 was $1.0758 trillion, a 21% year-on-year increase, marking the first time the annual trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion since 2000 [7] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and EU increased by 14% and 8% respectively, compensating for reduced exports to the US, thus driving overall export growth [7] - The CFETS RMB Index, reflecting the yuan's value against multiple currencies, rose to 97.99 by the end of 2025, indicating an increase of 3% from July 2025 [9] Group 3: Economic Concerns - Experts express concerns that continued yuan appreciation may not be tolerated by monetary authorities due to ongoing low consumer demand and potential economic downturns [10] - The People's Bank of China has shown a tendency to set the yuan's reference rate in a way that suggests a preference for depreciation, as seen in the recent trading patterns [10] - Analysts predict that the yuan will likely fluctuate within the 7 yuan range throughout the year, with limited potential for stabilization at the 6 yuan level [12]