岗位没有消失，但好工作更难找了

Group 1 - The core issue of employment in 2025 is not the disappearance of jobs, but rather the decreasing availability of "good jobs" that are easy to find, easy to do, and worth doing [2][12] - The employment situation is characterized by a divergence between macro stability and micro tension, leading to a highly emotional and structurally imbalanced social issue [2][4] - The employment landscape is influenced by three main forces: the deep transformation of industrial structure, increased uncertainty in economic growth, and weak consumer recovery affecting traditional employment sectors [5][6] Group 2 - In 2025, the number of college graduates is projected to reach 12.22 million, continuing a trend of record-high figures, which adds pressure to the job market [7] - The youth unemployment rate remains high, fluctuating between 16% and 18% for those aged 16-24, significantly above the overall unemployment rate of around 5% [7][8] - The trend of risk-averse choices among youth is evident, with a record number of 3.718 million applicants for national civil service exams, surpassing graduate school applications for the first time in over a decade [7][8] Group 3 - The current employment issue is fundamentally one of "mismatch" rather than "disappearance," with a significant portion of the workforce unable to find suitable positions due to skill and expectation mismatches [12][14] - There is a notable skills mismatch, where the demand for complex, integrated skills is rising, while many workers possess only basic or single-task skills [14] - The mismatch extends to expectations, with young people seeking job stability and security that the current market cannot adequately provide [14][15] Group 4 - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment is a critical theme, leading to job polarization rather than simple job loss, with high-end positions expanding while middle-skill jobs are compressed [21][23] - AI is creating new opportunities in technology-intensive roles, while also enhancing productivity for individual workers who can leverage AI tools [23][24] - The growth of flexible employment and new job forms is becoming a significant channel for income generation, with the government actively promoting these trends [24][26] Group 5 - The early return of migrant workers to rural areas in 2025 is attributed to weak demand in construction and manufacturing, leading to job insecurity and wage delays [28][29] - The trend of migrant workers returning home reflects a long-term shift, with a decline in the number of interprovincial migrant workers and a growing preference for local employment opportunities [30] - The employment risks faced by migrant workers have shifted from merely finding work to concerns about job security and income reliability [30] Group 6 - The coexistence of "lying flat" and "involution" reflects the rational choices of workers in a competitive job market, where high-quality job growth lags behind labor supply [32][33] - The phenomenon of "lying flat" arises when the marginal returns of effort diminish, leading workers to reduce their input in a low-reward environment [32][33] - The interplay of these dynamics indicates a complex employment landscape where individual rational choices can lead to systemic inefficiencies [35][36]