倒计时两年，2028年两岸关系的3个时间节点

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Taiwan election will be a critical turning point for cross-strait relations, with potential outcomes leading to either peaceful unification or various forms of unification depending on the election results [1][4]. Group 1: Key Time Nodes - Experts highlight 2027 as a significant year for Taiwan, but the author identifies 2028 as the more crucial year due to three key dates: January 8 or January 15, May 20, and the U.S. election day [2][10]. - The first key date is the potential date for the next Taiwan election, which could be January 8 or January 15, 2028, based on the previous election schedule [4]. Group 2: Election Outcomes and Implications - If the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the next election, it would mark 16 years of DPP governance, raising questions about the implications for peaceful unification as outlined in the Anti-Secession Law [3][6]. - The DPP's push for "de jure independence" is unlikely, as recent proposals to change legal terminology were quickly retracted after warnings from the mainland [6][7]. - Despite the low likelihood of formal independence, the DPP may still employ strategies to promote independence sentiments and deepen cross-strait tensions [7]. Group 3: Mainland China's Response - Mainland China's actions in the lead-up to the election are expected to serve as warnings, but if the DPP continues to govern, these actions may escalate [8][9]. - The inauguration of the new Taiwanese leader on May 20 will be another critical moment, influencing mainland China's policy decisions based on the leader's inaugural speech [9]. Group 4: Alternative Scenarios - Besides the DPP winning, two other scenarios for the 2028 Taiwan situation include the Kuomintang (KMT) winning the election or the absence of an election altogether [11][12].