突然，“救市”！刚刚，直线拉升！这国央行，出手

Core Viewpoint - The Indian central bank intervened in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars to support the rupee, which had been depreciating, with the aim of preventing it from falling below the 90 mark against the dollar [1][2][4]. Group 1: Currency Intervention - On January 7, the Indian central bank sold dollars, causing the rupee to rise, reaching a high of 89.7458 rupees per dollar [1][2]. - Prior to this intervention, the rupee had weakened significantly, hitting 90.3459 rupees per dollar on January 5, marking a cumulative depreciation of 4.72% for the year, the worst performance since 2022 [4]. - Analysts warn that if the rupee falls below 90 and the central bank does not intervene, the depreciation trend could accelerate, potentially triggering more dollar buying and further selling of the rupee [4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The outlook for the rupee's recovery is closely tied to the progress of US-India trade negotiations, which have stalled, particularly after the US imposed punitive tariffs on Indian goods due to India's imports of Russian oil [6][7]. - The US has raised tariffs on Indian products to 50%, which could hinder India's ability to benefit from supply chain shifts from the US market [6]. - Despite high tariffs, India's exports to the US saw significant growth in November, but there was a decline of over 20% in exports from May to November 2025 [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - The Indian economy is facing slowing growth pressures, prompting the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December to stimulate the economy [7]. - Analysts suggest that further rate cuts may occur in February 2026, as inflation is expected to remain subdued and the impact of US tariffs continues to affect economic growth [7].