财联社·2026-01-07 16:07Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the half-price purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles and the continuation of the "two new" subsidy policy have introduced new variables for the domestic automotive market in 2026, leading to divergent sales targets among traditional and new car manufacturers [2]. Group 1: Traditional Automakers - Geely has set the highest sales target for 2026 at 3.45 million units, with a growth rate of 14%, including 2.75 million units for the Geely brand, 300,000 for Zeekr, and 400,000 for Lynk & Co [4]. - Dongfeng Group aims for a total sales target of 3.25 million units in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of over 30%, including 1.7 million units for new energy vehicles, representing a 63% increase [5]. - Chery Group has set a target of 3.2 million units for 2026, reflecting a 14% growth compared to 2025, with a total of 2.806 million units sold in 2025 [5]. - Great Wall Motors has lowered its 2026 sales target from at least 2.49 million to at least 1.8 million units, indicating a 36% increase from last year's actual sales [5][6]. Group 2: New Car Manufacturers - Leap Motor has set an aggressive target of 1 million units for 2026, following a record sales performance in 2025 [7]. - Xiaomi aims for a sales target of 550,000 units in 2026, a 34% increase from the previous year, with new models expected to launch [7]. - NIO has set a target of 456,000 to 489,000 units for 2026, with a growth rate of 40-50%, supported by the introduction of several new models [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend in 2026, with overall growth driven by favorable national policies [9]. - The continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy is anticipated to mitigate the impact of the half-price purchase tax policy, providing a stabilizing effect on market growth [8][9].