非农将如何影响美联储降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market as it enters 2026, highlighting a slight recovery in employment but ongoing concerns about economic stability and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Labor Market Data - In December 2025, U.S. businesses added 41,000 jobs, which was below the expected 48,000, indicating a weak labor market [4][5]. - Wage growth for retained employees was stagnant at 4.4%, matching the lowest level since the pandemic, down from a peak of 7.8% in previous years [5]. - Job growth was concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare and hospitality, reflecting a lack of broad-based recovery in the labor market [5]. Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated that the labor market's deterioration may be stabilizing, with two out of the last three months showing job growth [5]. - The JOLTS report revealed a decline in job openings from nearly 7.5 million in October to about 7.1 million in November, with the job vacancy rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.3% [6]. - The number of involuntary job losses remained stable, with approximately 1.7 million people unemployed in November, down from 1.9 million in October [6]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data on January 9 is expected to significantly influence market direction, with the last reported non-farm job increase of 64,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in over four years [8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have shown a tendency to lower interest rates due to concerns about the weak labor market, with a nearly 50% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March [8][9]. - Despite a generally optimistic economic outlook for 2026, there are concerns about stagnant inflation and a weakening labor market, which could lead to further adjustments in monetary policy [9][10]. Economic Perspectives - Economists express caution regarding the labor market, noting that the current job growth is slowing and wage pressures are easing, which may indicate underlying economic stress rather than confidence in future prospects [9][10]. - The "low hiring, low firing" model in the labor market is seen as unsustainable, with potential consumer spending cuts leading to increased layoffs if economic conditions worsen [10].