2025年三元前驱体市场盘点——全球产量103.8万吨，同比增长7.7%

Core Viewpoint - The demand for ternary precursors in China is expected to drive production growth, with a projected output of 918,000 tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1]. Group 1: Production and Market Trends - In 2025, global ternary precursor production is anticipated to reach 1,038,000 tons, marking a 7.7% increase year-on-year [1]. - The penetration rate of medium and high nickel products is expected to rise further in 2024, with 6-series products gaining a 9 percentage point increase in market share compared to the previous year [3]. - The market share of high nickel products is projected to remain around 50%, as overall demand growth is limited [3]. Group 2: Cost and Supply Chain Dynamics - Fluctuations in cobalt salt prices, influenced by export policy changes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, have led to significant cost increases for precursors [6][7]. - Concerns regarding nickel supply have emerged following Indonesia's preliminary plans for nickel mining quotas in 2026, which may impact nickel prices [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Zhongwei Co. holds a leading position in the ternary precursor market, supported by domestic downstream customer demand [10]. - Hunan Bangpu and Lanzhou Jintong have seen market share increases due to orders from CATL and capacity ramp-up [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, the growth of medium and high nickel models is expected to continue, primarily driven by domestic demand [14]. - The projected production for ternary precursors in China and globally is expected to reach 982,000 tons and 1,106,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9% and 6.6% [14].