碳酸锂行情日报：有色整体回调，川军顽强救场

Market Overview - On January 8, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 142,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 5,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - The settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 120,000 CNY/ton, up by 7,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - Futures prices initially opened lower due to overall adjustments in the non-ferrous futures market but later stabilized and surged, with forward contract prices exceeding 150,000 CNY/ton [1] Price Changes - The price changes for various lithium products on January 8 compared to January 7 are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 1,900 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 14.2 CNY/kg, up 0.5 CNY [2] - Lithium hydroxide: 12 CNY/kg, up 0.7 CNY [2] - Lithium iron phosphate: 4.91 CNY/kg, up 0.2 CNY [2] - Ternary materials: 17.5 CNY/kg, unchanged [2] Industry Sentiment - Upstream companies believe a new cycle has just begun, with a significant upward trend expected to continue until 2026 [6] - Some midstream and downstream companies expressed concerns that the early-year price increases were beyond expectations, potentially overshooting future market conditions [6] - Capital market participants indicated that recent regulatory adjustments in exchanges make lithium carbonate less suitable for speculative trading, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [6] Supply Chain Insights - Several lithium salt companies in Sichuan plan maintenance from late January to February, primarily affecting production in Meishan, Mianzhu, and Suining, but the impact is expected to be limited [7] - Dazhong Mining plans to implement a lithium mining project with a capacity of 2 million tons/year, capable of producing 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate [7] Strategic Focus - Due to the rapid increase in lithium carbonate prices, many downstream users have abandoned previous stockpiling plans, focusing instead on just-in-time inventory replenishment [10] - Companies are prioritizing supply chain security over achieving cost advantages, acknowledging that the optimal timing for establishing cost advantages has passed [10] - Future attention will be on the volume of lithium mining and changes in the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage [10]