【广发金工】2026年A股打新展望与策略

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive review of the new stock issuance and offline subscription performance in 2025, highlighting a trend of increasing issuance despite a generally low volume and scale. It emphasizes the strong performance of new stocks on their first trading day and offers predictions for 2026 based on historical data and market conditions. Group 1: 2025 New Stock Issuance Overview - In 2025, a total of 112 new stocks were issued across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, raising approximately 1308.35 billion yuan [9] - The main board led in both the number of new stocks (38) and the total amount raised (616 billion yuan), followed by the ChiNext (31 stocks, 241 billion yuan) and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (18 stocks, 378 billion yuan) [12][14] - The overall issuance showed signs of acceleration despite being at a low level, indicating a potential recovery in the market [11] Group 2: Offline Subscription Data Characteristics - The average acceptance rate for offline subscriptions in 2025 was 94.4%, with a notable dip in May and June [19] - The median effective bid width for offline subscriptions was 5.1%, indicating a trend towards more concentrated bidding [21] - The average winning rate for subscriptions was 3.44%, with a median of 2.63%, reflecting a relatively low level compared to previous years [27] Group 3: First Day Performance of New Stocks - In 2025, there were no instances of new stocks breaking below their issue price on the first day, with an average price increase of 222.5% and a median of 200.6% [3][30] - The average turnover rate on the first trading day was approximately 79%, indicating strong trading activity [33] - Post-listing, new stocks generally experienced a trend of decline in the following trading days, suggesting a strategy for investors to consider selling on the first day [39] Group 4: Offline Subscription Yield Statistics - For accounts with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan, the annual yield for Class A investors was approximately 4.1%, while Class B investors saw a yield of about 3.0% [4][41] - As account size increased to 3 billion yuan, yields for both classes dropped significantly to 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively [41] - The dual innovation board contributed the most to subscription yields among various boards [41] Group 5: Beijing Stock Exchange Subscription Overview - In 2025, the Beijing Stock Exchange saw 26 new stocks listed, with a noticeable acceleration in issuance in the second half of the year [42] - The average first-day price increase for these stocks was 368.1%, indicating strong market interest [43] - The estimated yield for a 10 million yuan account in the Beijing Stock Exchange was approximately 2.64% [51] Group 6: First Day Selling Strategies - The report suggests optimizing selling strategies based on fixed time, fixed price increase, and turnover rate, with specific recommendations for offline and Beijing Stock Exchange stocks [54][60] - For offline subscription investors, selling when the turnover rate reaches 40%-70% is considered optimal, while for Beijing Stock Exchange stocks, holding until the end of the trading day is recommended [68] Group 7: 2026 Offline Subscription Yield Outlook - The predicted yield for offline subscriptions in 2026 is influenced by the scale of new stock listings, expected price increases, and the number of participating investors [69] - Based on historical data, the estimated yields for a 1.5 billion yuan Class A account under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios are 2.1%, 3.3%, and 4.4%, respectively [75]