铝价或陷入上涨螺旋，推手是AI热潮？

Core Viewpoint - The international price of aluminum is rising significantly, driven by strong demand as a substitute for copper, alongside concerns about electricity supply for aluminum smelting due to the increasing power consumption of AI data centers [2][4][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month futures for aluminum have shown a clear upward trend, surpassing $3,000 per ton on January 2 and reaching a peak of $3,138 per ton, the highest since April 2022 [4]. - The primary factor for the price increase is the significant rise in copper prices, which have seen a projected increase of 42% by 2025 due to supply-demand tensions [4]. - Investment funds are shifting towards aluminum, which has seen a more modest annual increase of 17% compared to copper [4]. Group 2: Electricity Consumption and Supply Concerns - Producing one ton of aluminum requires approximately 15,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 3 to 4 average households [6]. - Concerns about electricity supply are becoming a reality, with companies like Rio Tinto considering shutting down the Tomago aluminum smelter in Australia due to rising electricity costs, which account for 40% of the country's aluminum production [6]. - South32 announced the suspension of operations at its smelter in Mozambique starting March 2026 due to significant increases in electricity supply contract costs [6]. Group 3: Competition for Electricity and Future Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data centers' electricity consumption will more than double by 2030 compared to 2024, creating a competitive disadvantage for aluminum smelting plants [8]. - Major tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft are willing to pay over $100 per megawatt-hour for electricity, while aluminum smelting operations typically secure long-term contracts at around $40 per megawatt-hour [8]. - The environment for the aluminum smelting industry is becoming increasingly challenging, with predictions that aluminum prices could reach $3,200 per ton by 2028, and concerns that maintaining existing smelting operations may become difficult [8].