黄金，或已成全球头号储备资产

Core Viewpoint - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the largest reserve asset globally, driven by significant price increases and central bank purchases [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold as a Reserve Asset - As of November 30, the total official gold reserves held by foreign governments exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion, compared to nearly $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - By year-end, if central bank gold holdings remain unchanged, the value of these reserves could rise to $3.93 trillion, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. debt [2]. - The last time foreign institutions held more gold than U.S. Treasury bonds was in 1996, indicating a significant shift in reserve asset preferences [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold's Appeal - The increase in gold's attractiveness is linked to declining trust in fiat currencies, with non-U.S. countries' gold reserves approaching the value of their U.S. debt holdings [3]. - The surge in gold prices, which rose by 66% over the past year, reflects its status as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainties in the financial markets [4]. - Factors such as U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, low interest rates, high inflation, and ongoing central bank purchases will influence gold's long-term price trajectory [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Wall Street exhibits mixed views on gold's future, with most institutions, including UBS, adopting an optimistic stance, while some, like Capital Economics, predict a decline in gold prices by 2026 [4][5]. - Recent price increases have been primarily driven by retail demand from Western investors, which may diminish if expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are proven incorrect [5].