鑫椤锂电·2026-01-08 08:28Core Viewpoint - The lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) market is entering a new upward cycle in the second half of 2025, characterized by structural supply-demand mismatches [1]. Group 1: Market Capacity and Production - By the second half of 2025, the overall market will see an increase in production capacity of only 50,000 tons, with nominal capacity at 470,300 tons and effective capacity at 335,000 tons, leading to a global production of 279,000 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 83% [1]. - Major manufacturers such as Dongfang, Tianji, Tinci, Zhonglan Hongyuan, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical, and Yongtai are expected to operate at full capacity [1]. - The first-tier LiPF6 manufacturers will have production exceeding 35,000 tons in 2025, while second-tier manufacturers will exceed 5,000 tons annually [3]. Group 2: Company Rankings and Market Share - The top three LiPF6 companies will account for over 60% of the market share in 2025, with Tinci Materials holding over 30%, Dongfang at 18.3%, and Xintai New Materials exceeding 13% [8]. - The rankings for LiPF6 producers in 2025 are as follows: - First-tier: Tinci Materials, Dongfang, Xintai New Materials - Second-tier: Jiangxi Shilei, Shida Shenghua, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical, Zhejiang Yongtai, Jiangsu Bikon, Zhonglan Hongyuan, Longde, and Shenzhen New Star [5]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - After a prolonged period of stagnation, LiPF6 prices began to rise in July 2025, increasing from a low of 47,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton, marking a 283% increase [10]. - In 2026, global LiPF6 production is projected to reach 375,000 tons, with an additional 150,000 tons of effective capacity coming online, leading to an effective capacity of 400,000 tons and an operating rate exceeding 90% [10]. - Prices are expected to remain high throughout 2026, with the third and fourth quarters anticipated to experience seasonal demand peaks, resulting in continued price increases [10].