2026，如何参与 SpaceX 万亿 IPO 盛宴？

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX plans to launch the largest IPO in history in 2026, with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion, marking the first pricing of "extraterrestrial infrastructure" in human history [3][5][15]. Group 1: Development Stages of the Space Sector - The evolution of the space sector has transitioned from "vision" to "practical operation," with significant reductions in launch costs and the emergence of applications like space AI data centers and satellite direct-to-device communication [3][6]. - The first stage, Infrastructure, is characterized by a drastic reduction in marginal costs and democratization of orbital access, with SpaceX reducing launch costs from over $20,000/kg to around $2,500/kg, and aiming for $100-$200/kg with Starship [9][10][18]. - The second stage, Commercial Application, sees the emergence of applications like Starlink, which has over 8.5 million users and a gross margin exceeding 70%, transforming the space sector from a "money-burning" model to a "cash-printing" one [9][16]. - The third stage, Economic Closed-Loop, indicates that SpaceX has developed a self-sustaining ecosystem, no longer reliant on ground subsidies, and is positioned to dominate the space economy [11][12]. Group 2: SpaceX's Valuation and Business Model - SpaceX's valuation logic has shifted from being viewed as a "rocket company" to a "provider of extraterrestrial infrastructure," with a projected revenue of $22-24 billion in 2026, leading to a price-to-sales ratio of 63-68 times [15][16]. - The cash flow generated by Starlink allows SpaceX to reinvest profits into further advancements, such as Mars colonization and lunar bases, showcasing a self-sustaining growth model [17]. - SpaceX's control over orbital access, global bandwidth, and computational power grants it significant rule-making authority in the emerging lunar economy [17]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities Beyond SpaceX - Rocket Lab (RKLB) is positioned as a strong competitor to SpaceX, with its Neutron rocket set to launch in 2026, targeting the medium satellite market and benefiting from the overall growth in space infrastructure [20][21]. - ASTS is identified as a disruptive player in the space SaaS market, partnering with telecom operators to provide satellite connectivity with minimal user friction, aiming for a significant reduction in marginal costs once its satellite constellation is deployed [24][25]. - RDW is recognized as a key player in space manufacturing, with contracts for NASA and SpaceX, and is transitioning from a concept stock to a supplier of real infrastructure, indicating potential for significant valuation growth [31]. - LUNR is highlighted for its role in lunar infrastructure, with substantial backlog orders and a critical position in NASA's Artemis program, enhancing its scarcity value [32].