证券时报·2026-01-08 10:35Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with companies like Kuozi Jiao forecasting a 50% to 60% decrease in net profit for 2025, reflecting broader market expectations of declining performance across the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Kuozi Jiao expects a net profit of 6.62 billion to 8.28 billion yuan for 2025, a substantial decrease compared to the previous year [1]. - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with many companies facing growth pressures and setting modest growth targets for 2026 [1][4]. - According to a report by招商证券, the white liquor industry's revenue, net profit, and cash collection for Q3 2025 are projected to decline by 18.4%, 22.2%, and 26.7% year-on-year, respectively [3]. Group 2: Causes of Decline - Kuozi Jiao attributes its profit decline to falling demand and policy impacts, with a significant drop in sales of high-end products leading to reduced revenue [3]. - The industry is experiencing structural adjustments, as highlighted by the chairman of Wuliangye, who described 2025 as an exceptionally challenging year for the sector [3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Major white liquor companies are actively engaging in strategic meetings to outline their plans for 2026, focusing on stabilizing their market positions and enhancing operational resilience [6][7]. - Wuliangye's chairman emphasized the need for proactive adjustments to market conditions, including stabilizing product prices and helping channels manage inventory [7]. - Companies are shifting their focus towards high-quality development and aligning their strategies with consumer demand to achieve better supply-demand matching and price balance [8].