【安泰科】工业硅周评—弱需求逻辑主导 市场延续震荡格局（2026年1月7日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is currently stable, with a divergence between futures and spot prices, and overall demand remains weak despite some price increases in downstream products [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main futures contract 2605 closed at 8980 yuan/ton, up from 8860 yuan/ton before the holiday, with a total increase of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon remained stable at 9245 yuan/ton as of January 7, with specific grades like 553 at 8713 yuan/ton and 441 at 9169 yuan/ton showing no fluctuations [1][3]. - Regional prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were reported at 8810 yuan/ton, 10005 yuan/ton, and 10050 yuan/ton respectively, with export FOB prices also stable [1][3]. Group 2: Production and Supply - Industrial silicon production has remained stable overall, although some regions have seen slight reductions. Companies are maintaining prices near cash cost levels due to long-term contract pressures [1][2]. - Despite some companies entering loss zones, most are continuing normal production to meet customer supply and stabilize market share [1][2]. Group 3: Demand and Inventory - The market is currently dominated by weak demand, with slow inventory depletion and reduced purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, leading to inventory accumulation in some areas [2]. - Although prices for downstream products like organic silicon and polysilicon have increased due to production cuts, actual demand for industrial silicon remains low [2]. - The future market dynamics will depend on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the actual inventory depletion situation [2].