多家外资机构看好2026年中国市场表现

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a positive outlook for the Chinese market in 2026, driven by valuation recovery and structural changes in corporate fundamentals, with foreign investment showing increased interest and participation [3][5][8]. Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, major A-share indices saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index by 49.57% [4]. - The overall performance of the Chinese capital market in 2025 was described as "comprehensive and exceeding expectations" [5]. Factors Supporting Market Growth - Valuation levels are currently reasonable, with the MSCI China Index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13, slightly above the past decade's average [5]. - Investor participation remains below historical highs, indicating potential for further growth [5]. - External factors, including global economic shifts and supportive domestic policies, are expected to benefit the Chinese market [5]. Structural Changes in Corporations - Chinese companies are shifting their operational focus from "scale first" to "internal improvement," emphasizing profitability quality, technological barriers, long-term value, and innovation [5]. - UBS forecasts a potential earnings growth of 14% or higher for the MSCI China Index in 2026, driven by sectors such as internet platforms, high-end manufacturing, and companies with global expansion capabilities [5][6]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors' attitudes towards Chinese assets have shifted from cautious observation to active participation, with a noticeable influx of capital [5][6]. - Despite a significant recovery in foreign investment in 2025, there remains considerable room for increased allocation compared to the averages from 2017 to 2021 [6]. Predictions for 2026 - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for A-shares and H-shares, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index in 2026 [8]. - The market's growth momentum is expected to transition from valuation expansion to earnings-driven growth, particularly in the TMT sector, which is projected to see earnings growth of around 20% [8][9]. Investment Themes and Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on four key investment themes: companies benefiting from AI development, sectors supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan," leading export companies, and firms with substantial shareholder returns [9]. - The firm has assigned overweight ratings to sectors including technology hardware, insurance, materials, media/entertainment, and internet retail [9].