2026年格隆汇“下注中国”十大核心资产之黄金ETF（518880）

Core Insights - The article highlights that the Gold ETF (518880) has been selected as a core asset in the physical asset category for the 2026 "Betting on China" list, reflecting its significance in the current investment landscape [2][3]. Selection Logic and Analysis - In 2025, global financial market volatility increased, leading to a historic bull market for gold, with London spot gold prices rising over 67% to exceed $4,400 per ounce, marking it as the best-performing asset class globally [3]. - The demand for gold as a "credit hedge tool" has intensified due to the emphasis on asset safety and wealth preservation in the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing gold's triple attributes of anti-inflation, risk aversion, and asset allocation [3]. - The domestic Gold ETF market surged from 73 billion yuan to 236.1 billion yuan in 2025, a 223% increase, effectively meeting market demand for risk aversion and asset allocation [3]. Competitive Barriers - The unique asset attributes of gold create an irreplaceable advantage, as it is the only asset class that combines commodity, financial, and currency properties, making it a core tool for hedging credit risk [7]. - Gold ETFs offer superior liquidity and convenience, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan in 2025, allowing investors to enter and exit the market quickly [7]. - The management fee for Gold ETFs is generally below 0.5%, significantly lower than that of actively managed funds and physical gold, reducing the entry barrier for investors [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold reserves are limited to 59,000 tons, with current mining rates only sustainable for 19 years, providing long-term support for gold prices [8]. - In 2025, central banks net purchased 244 tons of gold, continuing a trend of over 1,000 tons for four consecutive years, driven by both central bank purchases and investment demand [8]. Industry Trends - The ongoing global liquidity easing cycle, initiated by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, is expected to continue into 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [11]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11]. - The demand for gold is further supported by the need for risk diversification among investors, as gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it an effective stabilizer in investment portfolios [12]. Investment Value Analysis - Gold's anti-inflation property serves as a hedge against currency depreciation, with a projected inflation rate of 4.5% in the U.S. for 2025, making gold a classic tool for preserving asset value [14]. - Gold's unique characteristics make it a "ultimate safe asset" in extreme scenarios, outperforming other safe-haven assets during market turmoil [14]. - Including Gold ETFs in investment portfolios can enhance overall returns, especially during economic downturns, where average returns on gold have been significantly higher than domestic stocks and bonds [15]. 2026 Investment Outlook - The core logic supporting gold's price increase—liquidity easing, weakened dollar credit, central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks—remains unchanged for 2026, suggesting a continued upward trend in gold prices [16]. - Predictions indicate that COMEX gold prices may reach between $4,750 and $4,900 per ounce in 2026, with potential to challenge $5,200 per ounce [16]. - The Gold ETF (518880) is positioned to benefit directly from rising gold prices, offering substantial asset appreciation opportunities for investors [16]. Conclusion - The Gold ETF (518880) is recognized as a composite core asset that transcends ordinary investment categories, providing hedging against inflation, risk aversion, and asset optimization [19]. - Investing in Gold ETFs represents a strategic opportunity to capitalize on the ongoing trends of global liquidity easing, credit system restructuring, and asset allocation upgrades in 2026 [19].