岗位没有消失，但好工作更难找了

Core Viewpoint - The employment situation in 2025 is characterized by a paradox where macroeconomic indicators show stability, but individual experiences of employment are increasingly negative, leading to a perception of a structural imbalance in the job market [5]. Group 1: Structural Challenges - The transformation of industrial structure is deepening, with traditional labor-intensive sectors losing their capacity to absorb employment, while new industries like AI and digital economy are still in the early stages of development, focusing on high-skill roles [8]. - Economic growth is slowing down, and uncertainty is increasing, causing companies to adopt a more cautious approach to hiring, often opting for outsourcing instead of direct employment [9]. - Weak consumer recovery is limiting the expansion of traditional employment sectors such as retail and hospitality, leading to conservative hiring practices among service industry firms [10]. Group 2: Employment Pressure Facts - In 2025, the number of college graduates reached 12.22 million, a record high, indicating unprecedented supply-side pressure in the job market [13]. - The youth unemployment rate remains high, fluctuating between 16% and 18% for those aged 16-24, significantly above the overall unemployment rate of around 5% [13]. - There is a notable increase in risk-averse choices among young people, with a record 3.718 million applicants for national civil service exams in 2026, surpassing those applying for graduate studies [13]. Group 3: Employment Mismatch - The current employment issue is fundamentally one of mismatch rather than a lack of jobs, with a significant gap between the skills of job seekers and the requirements of available positions [17]. - There is a growing expectation mismatch, particularly among youth, who seek job stability and security that many available positions do not offer [19]. - The employment process itself is fraught with uncertainty, particularly in blue-collar and flexible employment sectors, where workers face risks related to job completion and payment [19]. Group 4: AI and Employment Structure - AI is reshaping the employment landscape, leading to job polarization rather than simple job loss, with high-skill positions expanding while middle-skill jobs are being compressed [29]. - New job opportunities are emerging in AI-related fields, such as algorithm training and data annotation, driven by the integration of AI into traditional industries [30]. Group 5: Flexible Employment Growth - Flexible employment and new job forms are expanding, becoming a significant channel for income generation among workers, supported by national strategies for high-quality employment [32]. - However, issues such as income volatility and lack of social security remain prominent challenges for flexible workers [33]. Group 6: Migrant Worker Trends - An early wave of migrant workers returning home in 2025 is attributed to weak demand in construction and manufacturing, leading to job insecurity and wage delays [36]. - The trend of declining inter-provincial migrant workers reflects a shift in labor dynamics, with many opting for local employment opportunities instead of enduring the risks associated with urban migration [38]. Group 7: Employment Choices and Societal Impact - The coexistence of "lying flat" and "involution" reflects a rational response to the competitive job market, where the growth of quality jobs lags behind labor supply [40]. - The collective risk-averse behavior among individuals can lead to systemic inefficiencies, as an influx of talent into stable sectors may stifle innovation and exacerbate competition in the job market [25].