重回4100点，后市怎么走？最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points for the first time in 10 years, driven by positive factors in capital flow, policy, and industry trends [1][4][5]. Market Performance - On January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 4100 points, with a trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan and over 3900 stocks increasing in value [1][5]. - The market sentiment is high, indicating a potential "spring rally" as seen in previous years, characterized by increased trading activity and institutional engagement [5][6]. Positive Factors - Multiple positive factors are contributing to the market's performance, including favorable macroeconomic data, a supportive liquidity environment, and expectations of policy support for economic recovery [3][6]. - The strengthening of the RMB and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have improved the global capital flow environment, further supporting the A-share market [6][8]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology (semiconductors, AI), innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy metals, which are expected to benefit from ongoing industrial trends and policy support [10][12]. - The market is anticipated to experience a "震荡 + 结构分化" (oscillation + structural differentiation) pattern, with a focus on thematic investments driven by policy initiatives [8][11]. Long-term Outlook - The market is expected to gradually enter a deepening phase in 2026, with continued upward momentum from the recovery of fundamentals and sustained inflow of retail investment [8]. - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and strategic metals, which are poised for growth amid ongoing economic transformation [12].