光伏出口退税全面取消，企业拟加班抢出货

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, marking the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the solar industry [3]. Summary by Sections Impact on the Industry - The cancellation of the export rebate, currently at 9%, is expected to significantly impact PV component manufacturers, leading to increased direct costs and reduced price competitiveness [3]. - Analysts predict that the profit margin for exporting a 210R PV component will decrease by 46 to 51 yuan, compressing the gross profit margin for exporting companies [3]. - Companies are likely to renegotiate export prices, transferring the increased costs to overseas customers, which may lead to a short-term surge in export volumes as companies rush to fulfill orders before the rebate ends [4]. Market Dynamics - The cancellation is anticipated to accelerate the exit of less competitive domestic firms, while leading companies and high-tech firms may gain market share due to their scale and technological advantages [4]. - In the short term, there may be a spike in demand from overseas clients as they seek to place orders before the price increase, potentially alleviating pessimistic expectations within the industry [4]. Long-term Outlook - Long-term projections indicate a potential decline in PV component exports by 5% to 10% following the rebate cancellation, with a notable drop in overseas demand [4]. - The gross profit margins for exporting companies are expected to decrease, raising concerns about cash flow risks for these businesses [4]. Industry Reactions - A representative from a domestic second-tier PV company expressed that the rebate cancellation would severely impact all companies, not just smaller ones, as many firms rely heavily on the rebate for profitability [4]. - Some industry experts view the cancellation as a necessary measure to combat unhealthy price competition, suggesting that it could help stabilize market prices and reduce trade friction [5][6]. Regulatory Perspective - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association supports the adjustment of export rebates as a means to promote rational pricing in foreign markets and alleviate the fiscal burden on the government [5][6]. - The association acknowledges that while adjusting export rebates is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges, it can help mitigate rapid declines in export prices and lower the likelihood of trade disputes [6].