全球关注！特朗普加征关税，是否合法？美国最高法院：暂缓！

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court on the legality of Trump's tariffs is highly anticipated, as it could significantly impact U.S. tariff policy and global trade dynamics [1][2]. Summary by Sections Legal Status - The Supreme Court has postponed its decision on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which were implemented through executive orders without Congressional approval under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [2]. - This ruling will be the first major legal test of Trump's policies since his return to the White House and will clarify the boundaries between executive and legislative powers in trade [2]. Potential Outcomes - If the court supports Trump's tariffs, global trade uncertainty may increase, leading to higher commodity prices and trade costs, and exacerbating supply chain issues [3]. - Conversely, if the tariffs are deemed illegal, affected commodity prices may decrease, and importers could seek refunds, potentially benefiting international trade [3]. - A middle-ground ruling could impose institutional constraints on presidential trade powers, stabilizing global trade in the short term but leaving long-term uncertainties [3]. Market Impact - The court's decision is expected to be a significant test for U.S. equities and bonds, with the S&P 500 index already near historical highs, having risen approximately 40% since its low in April of the previous year [4][5]. - Analysts predict that if the court rules against Trump, S&P 500 companies could see a 2.4% increase in earnings before interest and taxes in 2026 compared to the previous year, potentially catalyzing a stock price rebound [5]. - Bond traders are preparing for volatility, although the impact is expected to be short-lived, as the market has likely already priced in some of the risks associated with the ruling [6]. Fiscal Considerations - The removal of tariffs could reignite fiscal concerns, leading to upward pressure on long-term yields, but the overall impact is expected to be limited as the Trump administration may seek alternative legal avenues to reinstate most tariffs [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring the potential timing and scale of refunds that the government may need to pay to importers, which could affect the issuance of government securities [6].