21世纪经济报道·2026-01-10 02:11Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in global oil prices and the corresponding rise in the stock prices of oil shipping companies, driven by geopolitical tensions and operational improvements within the industry [1][3][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Surge - Global oil prices have seen a notable increase, with U.S. oil futures rising by 3.14% and Brent oil futures by 4.26% over the week [1]. - The oil shipping market, particularly in A-shares, has experienced a remarkable rally, with companies like China Merchants Energy (招商轮船) and COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) seeing stock price increases of 9.47% and 8.82% respectively [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - China Merchants Energy's stock reached a new high of 10.08 CNY per share, the highest since July 2015, reflecting strong market confidence [7]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 6 to 6.6 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 17% to 29%, with Q4 expected to see a profit growth of 55% to 90% due to improved oil tanker business profits [7]. - COSCO Shipping Energy is also increasing its capital expenditure, planning to build new vessels, which signals confidence in the oil shipping market [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The "shadow fleet" of oil tankers, which has been targeted by U.S. sanctions, is shrinking, leading to a tighter supply of compliant oil tankers and potentially driving up freight rates [9][10]. - The global VLCC fleet is expected to see minimal growth, with only three new deliveries anticipated in 2025, indicating a tight supply-demand balance in the market [12]. - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that VLCCs are the most constrained segment, with demand expected to grow by 0.9% while supply only increases by 0.2% [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the tightening of compliant tanker supply due to sanctions and the aging fleet will likely lead to sustained high freight rates in the future [11][12]. - Despite a potential peak in VLCC deliveries post-2027, rising construction costs and capacity constraints may hinder actual delivery timelines [13].