反倾销+AI双驱动，这个赛道要起飞？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a strong rise driven by policy support, surging demand from AI and production expansion, and significant technological breakthroughs [5][28]. Demand Explosion - The AI computing revolution is expected to significantly increase demand, with global AI server shipments projected to exceed 3 million units by 2026. The application of new technologies like high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced packaging (Chiplet) is doubling the material usage per wafer [6]. - The global expansion of wafer fabs is set to add certainty to capacity, with 48 new fabs expected to come online in 2024 and 18 more in 2025, primarily in advanced 12-inch processes. China is leading this expansion, increasing its 300mm fabs from 29 to 71 between 2024 and 2027, accounting for nearly 30% of global capacity [7]. Technological Breakthroughs - Domestic companies are achieving significant technological advancements, with over 40% localization in mature process materials like 8-inch wafers and polishing liquids. In advanced processes, domestic firms are catching up, with small-scale supply of 12-inch wafers and ArF photoresists [8]. - The emergence of third-generation semiconductor materials, such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN), is creating new growth avenues, particularly in electric vehicles and 5G applications, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 25% [9]. Policy Support - The anti-dumping investigation into Japanese dichlorodimethylsilane is seen as a timely opportunity for domestic semiconductor materials, potentially increasing their market share if dumping is confirmed. This investigation provides a critical window for domestic firms to enhance their technology and customer validation [10]. - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund) is increasing its focus on core technologies and key materials, with the third phase set to raise 344 billion yuan, further supporting the industry [11]. Market Segmentation and Challenges - The semiconductor materials market is characterized by a high concentration of Japanese firms dominating high-end segments, with significant barriers to entry for domestic companies. For instance, the top four suppliers control over 80% of the silicon wafer market [14]. - In the photoresist market, Japanese companies hold 80% of the global share, with domestic production rates for advanced photoresists being nearly zero [19]. - The electronic specialty gases market is similarly dominated by Japanese and American firms, with domestic production rates around 25%, highlighting the need for further localization [20]. Investment Opportunities - High-end segments with less than 10% localization present the greatest replacement potential, particularly in photoresists and advanced target materials, benefiting from policy support and technological advancements [29]. - Sectors directly benefiting from anti-dumping policies, such as dichlorodimethylsilane and upstream materials for photoresists, are expected to see immediate gains [30]. - The demand-driven segments, particularly those related to AI and wafer fab expansions, are poised for exponential growth, with domestic companies ready to capitalize on these trends [31]. Conclusion - The semiconductor materials industry is entering a golden growth period, with clear trends towards high-end localization and technological advancements. The combination of policy support, surging demand, and domestic breakthroughs presents significant long-term investment opportunities [34].