黄奇帆：资本市场两个“轮子”要一起转

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a dual mechanism in China's capital market, consisting of both the stock market and a robust capital formation and supplementation mechanism for enterprises, to drive national economic growth [3]. Group 1: Capital Market Structure - The capital market in China includes two main components: the stock market involving listed companies and securities firms, and the broader capital formation mechanisms for all enterprises, including private equity funds [3]. - A sustainable capital supplementation mechanism is crucial for addressing the efficiency and risk issues faced by Chinese enterprises, which currently have a high debt-to-equity ratio [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Challenges - Historically, state-led initiatives in the 1990s, such as debt write-offs and the development of the stock market, significantly contributed to capital supplementation for enterprises [4]. - As of 2000, the capital of listed companies was over 70%, but by now, the debt ratio for enterprises has risen to around 70%, which is significantly higher than the 30%-40% seen in the US and Europe [4]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions for Capital Supplementation - To improve the capital structure, an additional 30 trillion to 40 trillion yuan is needed to raise the total capital of Chinese enterprises from approximately 200 trillion yuan to around 240 trillion yuan, potentially reducing the debt ratio to 55% or 50% [5]. - Four sources for this additional capital include: 1. Bank capital, where banks could allocate about 1 trillion yuan for equity investments [7]. 2. National social security funds, which could contribute around 2 trillion yuan [7]. 3. Commercial insurance funds, potentially providing close to 4 trillion yuan [8]. 4. Foreign exchange funds, which could be mobilized through special government bonds [8]. Group 4: Expected Benefits of Capital Injection - The proposed capital injection could lead to improved enterprise risk management, foster new productive capacities, generate substantial investment returns, enhance the influence of state-owned enterprises on the economy, and improve the credit and returns of private enterprises [8][9]. - An estimated average return of 8% on the proposed funds could yield 3 trillion to 4 trillion yuan in investment returns, benefiting public finances and social security funds [9].