专家：中国降准还有较大空间

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of China's monetary policy adopting a "small step" approach is high, especially in the face of uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Mechanism - Monetary policy generally targets short to medium-term goals and requires a "step-by-step" approach during uncertain times [3]. - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is more complex than that of fiscal policy, with a longer transmission path [3]. - China's monetary policy transmission mechanism has evolved to include a sequence from policy interest rates (OMO rates) to loan market quotation rates (LPR) and then to actual loan rates [3]. Group 2: Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and Interest Rates - RRR cuts are preferred over interest rate cuts as they increase the funds available for commercial banks, supporting active fiscal policies [5]. - Since 2016, the RRR has been adjusted downwards 23 times, with a cumulative decrease of 8.5 percentage points for large deposit-taking financial institutions [5]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.42% as of Q3 2025, indicating pressure on banks' profitability [6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for interest rate cuts, especially given the low inflation and high real interest rates in China [8]. - The external environment for interest rate cuts has improved, with the Federal Reserve having cut rates by a total of 75 basis points in 2025, while China's policy rate was only reduced by 10 basis points [8]. - Structural monetary policy tools can be used to lower interest rates, particularly to support technological innovation and weaker economic sectors [8]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Considerations - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, suggesting that the expansionary fiscal policy will continue into 2026 [8]. - It is suggested that China could raise its fiscal deficit ratio to create conditions for more active fiscal policies, diverging from the Maastricht Treaty guideline of a 3% deficit ratio [8].