镍价狂飙两周暴涨逾20%，概念股集体走强，兴业银锡年内涨超18%

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged since mid-December 2022, driven by supply risks from Indonesia and a large-scale investment boom in China's metal market, although signs of cooling have emerged recently [1][3]. Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - On January 6, 2023, nickel futures prices soared by 10.5% to nearly $18,800 per ton, marking the largest single-day increase since late 2022 [1]. - By January 9, 2023, the three-month nickel futures price had dropped to $17,155 per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.3% [1]. - The recent nickel price surge has been accompanied by a collective rise in nickel-related stocks, with Guiyan Platinum and Xingye Yinxin seeing increases of nearly 16% and over 18% respectively since the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Indonesia controls nearly 70% of global nickel production and has announced plans to cut production quotas by approximately 34% in 2026, which could significantly impact global nickel pricing [5][6]. - The Indonesian government is also adjusting the pricing formula for nickel and imposing taxes on by-products like cobalt, which could increase production costs [6][11]. - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's shift from production expansion to active price support could ignite concerns about future supply shortages [6][11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The recent volatility in nickel prices has been partly fueled by a surge in investment activity in the Chinese metal market, with trading volumes for nickel and other metals increasing significantly [7]. - Despite the recent price increases, analysts predict that without substantial demand recovery or coordinated production cuts, nickel prices may struggle to maintain high levels, with forecasts suggesting an average price of $15,250 per ton by 2026 [3][15]. - The current market sentiment indicates that while nickel prices have risen, the underlying supply-demand imbalance remains, with expectations of a surplus of 350,000 to 400,000 tons by 2026 [15].