“跷跷板”效应显现！债市增量资金流入放缓……

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown of incremental capital inflow into the bond market as the commodity market strengthens, highlighting a shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures have shown sensitivity to market expectations, with the main contract price hitting a low of 110.40 yuan, the lowest since October 2024, indicating a bearish sentiment in the bond market [2][3]. - The recent economic recovery and rising stock market have increased risk appetite among investors, leading to a significant shift away from the bond market [3][4]. - The long-term bond yields are expected to rise, with predictions that the 30-year bond yield may exceed previous highs by over 40 basis points in the second half of 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal expansion and inflation expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current environment presents challenges for bond investments, with significant pressure on long-term rates compared to short-term rates, necessitating a shift in investment strategies towards neutral duration and tactical trading in a range-bound market [4][7]. - The article notes a growing opportunity for alternative fixed-income strategies, such as multi-strategy, FOF, and CTA quantitative products, as capital flows out of low-yield deposits into equities [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Recent inflation data shows a slight increase in CPI by 0.8% year-on-year, while PPI has decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating mixed signals in the economy [3]. - The net supply of government bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, which is 1.4 trillion yuan higher than the actual net financing in 2025, suggesting a potential supply-demand imbalance in the bond market [6].