2026年日元汇率展望：美国降息节奏是关键

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate against the US dollar for the first time in five years by 2025, primarily due to the decline in US dollar credit, although it remains weak against other currencies [2][4]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 30, 2025, the exchange rate is 1 USD to 155.97 JPY, showing an appreciation of approximately 1.90 JPY (1% increase) compared to the same time in 2024 [4]. - The yen's appreciation against the dollar is attributed to the depreciation of the dollar, while it continues to depreciate against other major currencies, indicating that a true shift to a yen appreciation phase is not yet realized [8][10]. - The yen reached its highest point of the year at 139.80 JPY per USD on April 22, 2025, following the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy by the US government [6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Implications - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.5% in 2025, reaching the highest level in approximately 27 years, which narrows the long-term interest rate gap between Japan and the US [10]. - Despite the interest rate hike, the yen has not transitioned to an appreciation phase, as the government's active fiscal policies may undermine the effects of the Bank of Japan's rate increase [10][11]. - Predictions suggest that by December 2026, the yen may depreciate again to around 160 JPY per USD, depending on the trajectory of US monetary policy [10][11].